President Trump stepped back from his demands for an immediate 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following calls with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, instead suggesting Moscow and Kyiv should start negotiations over what broader peace talks might look like.

The president’s rhetoric since the calls indicates a shift that will be welcomed in the Kremlin, which has expressed an openness to peace talks but set maximalist terms that are impossible for Zelensky or his European partners to swallow.

…

“I think the Trump administration has overestimated Russia’s desire for a deal. In fact, Russia thinks it can still win the war on the battlefield, which is why it has not offered meaningful concessions,” he said in an email.

“Unless the Trump administration takes steps to weaken Russia’s military prospects, the Kremlin will keep betting on the battlefield as the best way to achieve its goal of controlling Ukraine over the long run.”