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2004 … researchers knew relatively little about the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an ocean system that transports warm water and nutrients around the Atlantic Ocean.

A new study by René van Westen at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and his colleagues suggests the AMOC could tip towards collapse between 2037 and 2064, with a mean estimate of 2050.

The collapse of the AMOC could lead to rapid sea level rise in North America, a sudden and severe drop in temperatures across northern Europe and serious disruption to monsoons across Asia.

Van Westen and his team’s work is the second study in as many years to predict a mid-century collapse of the AMOC, following a 2023 paper by Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen, both at the University of Copenhagen.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says a full AMOC collapse is unlikely in the current century, based on climate modelling.

Niklas Boers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says other evidence does show that the AMOC has become increasingly unstable in the past century. … “These uncertainties absolutely prevent you from making sharp estimates of when the actual time of tipping would be,” he says.