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Cake day: February 17th, 2024

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  • There are a lot of predictions going around, but to be fair, everyone is biased, because they either want to see it pop, or they want to see it succeed, and not be a bubble at all. Everyone who says it’s going to last about five years because that’s the average for bubbles is plain wrong because averages are sneaky, because the canal mania lasted way longer than that and had very different development than the other bubbles. or the .com bubble being a very short-lived one. Suffice to say averages are useless for this stuff, because it’s not predictable, a round-trooping scam can keep going as long as there’s fresh outside money going in. Because the USA are desperately trying to finance their shit spending with new bonds and by avoiding countries such as Japan, which have a lot of US bonds, selling them, it could pop tomorrow or in 5 years, who knows? It’s not a simple y = x2. Also, the bears always have been quicker than the bulls, to call a pop.

    What I’d like to say with that is, no one knows. We can see a lot of bad things happening in the economy right now, the fat bond spread, the markets which are still hooked on fossil fuels, having massive energy cost problems, the AI bubble being a round tripping scam, the safety mechanisms of indexes being deactivated to keep the bubble going, the private credit crisis, which again feeds into the bubble and the USA having already trouble with their economy way more than everyone else. We can see these signs, recognise that there is a problem, but we don’t know when that problem will reach us.

    My personal biases are that I come from the EU (the USA bring our #1 trading partner) and I called bullshit very early on on the AI bubble. Do with that what you will.