I certainly hope we don’t see liberal use of nuclear weapons. I’d rather my Chinese comrades not die and if I’m being honest I’d prefer not to die too.

I don’t think nukes will be held back as a last resort in the coming wars.

China has a no first use policy. China is run by a communist party (a moral party against mass death). They know the US is deranged and dangerous. The US might use nuclear weapons but only if they have confidence they’re going to get the drop on China and suffer in the words of Buck Turgidson “limited and therefore acceptable losses compared to them therefore we win”.

Actual ICBMs arent as big of a threat

They are an enormous threat. Interception is difficult and frankly Russia is ahead of China on this. The US has 4000 warheads, penetration rate of as I mentioned even 2-3% of those getting past interceptors would be enough to kill more than a hundred million Chinese people, would be enough to cripple Chinese industry, would be enough to plunge China into misery and devastation and knock them out as a world power for years if not a decade or more. (As would successful nuclear strikes on major US cities knock them out of consideration for a similar period though the US has the advantage of having its armies divided across the world in various bases as well as vassals they can call upon to rebuild some sort of Euro-American empire project)

Nuclear war is not something you just brush off.

as the nuclear armed sub fleet the US has, and the Chinese have shown they have a very effective method of tracking these subs recently.

One speculative paper that is not guaranteed to actually work as well in practice and which would require an extensive sensor net over the SCS to make work which China flatly does not presently have. Besides the fact, they could launch from off the east coast of Korea, off the coast of Russia, off the coast of Japan.

And if the US does a nuclear strike it will be a surprise attack, the US will not telegraph to China that they’re going to nuke them, China will not have time to sink these subs. And guess what seeking out and trying to sink nuclear missile subs is a threat to nuclear deterrence and if China did that first the US might very well react with nuclear retaliatory strikes (or strikes of conventional nature aimed at taking out Chinese nuclear capabilities at which point the PLA has to assume it’s part of a full scale attack and launch accordingly which will prompt full American launch response) and the CPC military commission planners know this. Thus it would be pointless unless China was doing a first strike trying to decapitate US capabilities which I doubt they’d do.

The bottom line as I see it is this:

1. If the US gets some sort of ability to suppress Chinese nuclear retaliation they’ll use their own nuclear weapons to destroy China, occupy and enslave or at least suppress and encircle and starve her remaining people. If this happens China won’t be invading the US, others might, of which Chinese irregular (not PLA) forces might make up some part but not a bulk of which given the big ocean they’d need to cross.

2. If the US doesn’t get a suppression ability but China does, then the US won’t use nukes, won’t egg China to use nukes and will use other methods such as encirclement, sanctions, blockade in all but name via command of financial institutions instead all while crying and pissing themselves that China is going to kill them all tomorrow.

3. If neither the US nor China gets a reliable method to suppress the other’s nuclear response then China will not launch first. The US may be deranged enough to launch on China in a sneak attack but if they do China’s response will remove the US from the picture, there won’t be much left to invade, dying, starving, miserable people in a wasteland is what the US will be and there will be little point invading it, if something is going to be invaded in that situation it will be Europe with America’s left-over military assets trying to regain world hegemony. But in this final picture importantly China will not be playing a big role because hundreds of millions of Chinese will be dead, the Chinese nation like the American one will be smashed and spend decades recovering during which stronger powers like Russia and India will try and invade and carve off resources or impose neo-colonial arrangements on the Chinese people.

2 is a likely win condition for China and for communism. 3 is a potential win condition IF the US doesn’t go nuclear. If it does, socialism loses, the US loses, but capitalism in the aftermath of all the devastation has a good chance of continuing and winning to reign in barbarity over a climate change devastated world.

I actually think we will see the first nuke deployed soon. Within 2-3 years. Potentially in Yemen, or Gaza.

The zionists are deranged but not enough to want a nuclear weapon going off in their backyard and what they see as their property. Their present methods of genocide are more than enough and the US is giving them adequate cover. They’ll probably succeed in bullying Egypt or someone to take enough Gazans that they can do what they want. Fact is nuking Muslims off the face of the earth like that will still up a lot of Muslim rage and anger compared to just killing them with normal bombs and starvation as they’ve been doing and will solidify resistance and hatred of the zionist entity even among Europeans who will be unable to paint such an act of naked massacre by a strong power as somehow acceptable. It would make them a pariah state and undo so much hasbara propaganda. Nuking Yemen would be a terror tactic and probably a pointless one given how the country’s armed forces are structured, it’s not like they can nuke a city and take out a bunch of weapons plants there given how Ansar Allah operates. If they’re going to use terror tactics on Yemen that amount to war crimes chemical and biological weapons seem a more practical idea and give the US more complete plausible deniability compared to a nuke.

and if your still kicking when a coalition probably led by China lands troops on American soil sometime in the 2030s im sure they wont mind the help.

Improbable fantasy.

The only way China would physically invade the US mainland and push inland is if the US had already used a large chunk of its nuclear arsenal successfully or not on China because invading in that way is a sure fire way to get the US to hit China with its nukes in a furious rage.

I personally doubt China’s near future ability to mitigate US ICBM’s to even 98% efficiency (and the US has so many if they use even half their stores that’s ~40 warheads that still get through and destroy the largest Chinese industrial cities and their people).