Intel Slava Z
t.me
Alpine: "The top risk is Israel targeting Iran's nuclear program, escalating the conflict regionally, disrupting Persian Gulf oil exports, and potentially drawing the U.S. into the fray. Prior to this conflict, we thought this risk was underappreciated. We had estimated it at ~20%, given Iranian nuclear enrichment activities. Israel now has a strong incentive to take the war to its main enemy, Iran, so this risk will likely increase." "The most extreme scenario involves Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities (~20% chance). This could spike oil prices well north of $150/bbl."

More realistically though,

Press TV’s Telegram comments on claims by Israeli media: “All surrounding areas of Gaza retaken, no clashes now taking place with Hamas”

Maybe Hamas will wait with the hostages, knowing that the most hawkish Israelis will advocate further violence. At this point Hezbollah might join.

edit: t.me is a shortened URL for Telegram links, some posts are visible without the need to install telegram.