Just two months ago, Biden said that the invasion of Rafah is a “red line” Israel must not cross.
Archived version: https://archive.ph/96pmD
Just two months ago, Biden said that the invasion of Rafah is a “red line” Israel must not cross.
Archived version: https://archive.ph/96pmD
I think the quote about the “white liberal” more interested in the negative peace of order is incredibly salient. I’ve been thinking very very deeply about this quote over the last several months.
I appreciate your optimism but I think this is less certain than you make it out to be. I think you need to take these assumptions to the electoral college map and actually game it out. Specifically, without pivoting on Gaza, I argue that Biden has lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. They demonstrated their willingness to step back from Biden, and Biden has only gotten worse since then. He held onto those states by a shoestring in 2020.
Thats 35 electoral votes. So where does Biden make those up on abortion rights? What states does Biden flip into his favor. Florida? (yea fucking right) Texas? (blue as my balls waiting for this state to turn purple).
Like show me on a map where these electoral college votes that Biden has gained are coming from and we can have that conversation. Otherwise, you don’t actually have an argument because the popular vote is irrelevant, and whining about winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college isn’t an argument either.
My read of the electoral college map is that we’re basically locked into the state it was in for 2016 and 2020. I don’t see anything fundamentally different going into 2024. So the question becomes, what states flip from 2020?
the argument comes from midterm election results where red safety states went blue when they were bombarded with pro-abortion political adds. this article from npr goes into a deeper dive and also has a link to the exit poll results from those midterm elections: https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248599739/abortion-democrats-independents-republicans-voting-2024-election
additionally: presidential elections also usually go blue so a popular vote win is also likely for biden. (this is so well known that some red states like texas hold their gubernatorial elections on off presidential year elections to avoid this phenomenon).
finally: my goal wasn’t to spread optimism; i was trying to share something that helps give me peace with our situation with someone who has expressed the same concern i’ve been having in a thread that the fediverse is trying to now trying to ignore.
I asked for what specific states are going to flip on abortion rights. Your article does not cover that.
the article that the i shared with you has a link showing the exit polls.
tldr: it all the states that voted blue where they were expected to go red; including georgia, pennsylvania, nevada, & arizona
All of those states were blue in 2020. None of those represent a pickup based on abortion.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/2020-actual-electoral-map
read the articles: they were expected to go red for congress and didn’t, that’s the point.
Ok so you retained those states.
Where do you get the remaining electoral college votes if WI, MI, and MN go red?
wisconsin’s pro-republican gerrymandering is gone; presidential term elections almost always go more blue and will influence the outcome as it did in the last presidential election; and rfk jr. is around to soak up the rest.
So whats the path then?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/2020-actual-electoral-map
Use this and tell me your path to 270. You have to do it with out WI, MI, and MN.
If you can’t do that, then stfu.