Because it’s not reasonable, the person is. A person can be reasonable without holding all reasonable beliefs. I’m willing to bet you have misconceptions about the concept of simultaneity that would not hold up if you learned the math behind special relativity, but it doesn’t make you unreasonable because you haven’t learned the niche weird stuff that happens near the speed of light. just assume that things happen in a certain order because that’s what it seems like and don’t worry that they can happen in a different order for someone in a different inertial frame of reference.

Yes, you’ve got it. And it is hand waving bullshit that I absolutely do not agree with, but if you can’t incorporate the fact that it’s a real thing that a reasonable person can believe then you are under-thinking it.

If something did exist outside of nature, there’s no reason you should be able to know about it. Rules of logic wouldn’t necessarily apply and it is not something you could reliably apply statistics to.