The next Republican administration will coexist in the region with allied countries, Caribbean dictatorships and a bloc of nations that are strategic partners of China, Russia and Iran
(From Washington, United States) The triumph of Yamandú Orsi in the presidential elections in Uruguay ends up assigning the pieces of the puzzle that Donald Trump will have to put together in Latin America, a geopolitical scenario that exhibits allies of the next Republican administration, Marxist dictatorships and a bloc of countries that will have zigzag diplomatic relations with the United States due to their ties with China. Russia and Iran.
Trump’s regional agenda aims to end China’s influence, force institutional change in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, facilitate government management in Argentina, Paraguay, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, and establish specific political agreements with Brazil and Mexico.
However, Trump appointed Marco Rubio as secretary of state, a descendant of Cuban exiles who will not miss the historic opportunity: it is the first time that the head of American diplomacy knows – for real – what is happening from Mexico City to Santiago de Chile.
Dictators Nicolás Maduro, Daniel Ortega and Miguel Díaz-Canel have transformed Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba into proxies for China, Russia and Iran. In addition, these authoritarian leaders exercise state control over the opposition that violates all the human rights established by the United Nations (UN) and the Organization of American States (OAS).
Trump plans a roadmap that will involve greater economic and financial sanctions on Havana, Managua and Caracas, instead of establishing certain agreements from the White House as Joe Biden executed without result. Maduro committed fraud against Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado, and Biden barely had a diplomatic response that Venezuela’s regime treated like tropical rain.
If there were an order of priority for Trump and Secretary Rubio, Maduro heads the list and behind Díaz-Canel, who deploys his intelligence apparatus in Venezuela to capture and torture members of the opposition, and also meet the members of the Armed Forces who are already proposing an orderly democratic transition.
Unlike the political cold that it will apply to Caribbean dictatorships, the Republican administration plans to promote a privileged relationship with Javier Milei, Santiago Peña, Luis Abinader and Nayib Bukele. This political relationship will not be linear – Trump foresees a protectionist agenda that may affect regional exports to the United States – but it will aim to grant certain benefits to Argentina, Paraguay, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador.
In this context, Milei participated in a dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and Paraguayan Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez Lezcano was with the president-elect in his condo, before leaving for Taiwan. Milei is negotiating a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and President Peña supports his Foreign Minister Ramírez as a candidate for Secretary General of the OAS.
Trump will support Milei and Peña to fulfill their political objectives. If you look at the whole regional puzzle that the future president of the United States will have to put together, Argentina and Paraguay are the only two pieces with their own volume that will be aligned with Trump’s global agenda.
Brazil and Mexico lead a bloc of nations that, due to their ideological outlook and strategic agreements with China, Russia and Iran, will be refractory to Trump’s foreign policy. Those countries are Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Peru and certain Caribbean islands that need oil from Venezuela and military intelligence from Cuba.
From this perspective, Trump will have to maximize Rubio’sdiplomatic capacity. Lula da Silva is president of the most important country in the region, while Claudia Sheinbaum acceded to the presidency of Mexico with a notable victory in the general elections.
Mexico is a privileged trading partner of the United States – along with Canada – and Brazil has enough political capacity to condition Trump’s international agenda. Lula is playing on par with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and Sheinbaum will demand that the Republican government establish a common policy regarding undocumented immigrants and the Fentanyl crisis.
Rubio will announce his team for Latin America in the coming weeks, following his approval hearing as secretary of state in the Senate. He has a team of experts who have accompanied him for years in his parliamentary activity. Unlike other heads of American diplomacy - both Republicans and Democrats - Rubio knows the region and speaks the same language.